I write about elections and the data underneath them, and I talk about how the models actually work.

Ongoing

Regular contributor at GDPolitics.

Selected writing

• What Democratic swings in special elections mean for 2026
• How Mamdani stunned in New York City’s mayoral primary, mapped
• Did Canada just change how we think of Trump’s 2024 election?
• The election is uncertain, but it might not be close

How the models work

• How The Washington Post’s presidential polling averages work
• How The Post’s forecast will track 2024 election results
• How The Post reports election race calls (with Scott Clement)
• How The Post estimates outstanding votes (with John Cherian)
• Source code for the live election night model: elex-live-model and the earlier 2020-election-night-model

Selected talks

• AAPOR, 2025. Cross-validating pre-election polls, post-election polls and geographic voting patterns, 2025 (link)
• Stanford, Scientific Discovery in the Age of Data & AI, 2024 (link)
• CSTE Infectious Disease Forecasting & Modeling Workshop, 2024
• Computation + Journalism, 2022 (link) and 2021 (link)
• NICAR, 2022

I speak about election modeling and data in newsrooms. If you’re putting together a program, get in touch.